Coverage:
United Kingdom
Theme: Money
Released:
20 June 2019
Next release:
June 2020
Frequency of release:
Annual
Media contact:
HMRC Press Office
(Individuals) 03000 585 020
(Business) 03000 585 028
Out-of-hours: 07860 359 544
Statistical contacts:
Anthony Burke
03000 572 768
anthony.burke@hmrc.gov.uk
Website: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/measuring-tax-gaps
This Measuring tax gaps publication is Crown copyright. Information may be used provided source is acknowledged.
Tax gap estimates for 2017-18
June 2019
Official Statistics
This is an interactive version of the executive summary and chapter one of Measuring tax gaps 2019 edition. The full report, Methodological annex and tables can be found at https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/measuring-tax-gaps.
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5.6%
The tax gap is estimated to be £35 billion, which is 5.6% of tax liabilities.
The ‘tax gap’ is the difference between the amount of tax that should, in theory, be paid to HMRC, and what is actually paid.
Tax gap analysis helps us to understand the reasons for losses in the tax system.
It’s an Official Statistic produced by analysts in HMRC using a range of internal and external data and different analytical techniques.
The tax gap is difficult to measure and there are many sources of uncertainty and error. However, it gives an indication of our long-term performance, we have seen that the tax gap has decreased since 2005-06.
in 2017-18
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Select a breakdown of the tax gap.
The UK tax gap in 2017-18 is estimated to be £35 billion. This is 5.6%1 of total theoretical tax liabilities, and a small increase of 0.1% from 5.5% in 2016-17. This means in 2017-18, HMRC secured 94.4% of all tax due.
There has been a long-term reduction in the overall tax gap, from 7.2% in 2005-06 to 5.6% in 2017-18. Between 2015-16 and 2017-18, the overall percentage tax gap has remained relatively stable, showing a small increase of 0.3%.
The tax gap for income tax, National Insurance Contributions and Capital Gains Tax (IT, NICS and CGT) is 3.9% in 2017-18 at £12.9 billion and represents the biggest share of the total tax gap by type of tax.
There has been a long-term reduction for the VAT (Value Added Tax) gap from 12.2% in 2005-06 to 9.1% in 2017-18.
The duty-only excise tax gap has reduced from 8.4% in 2005-06 to 5.1% in 2017-18.
The Corporation Tax gap has reduced from 12.5% in 2005-06 to 8.1% in 2017-18.
The avoidance tax gap has reduced from £4.9 billion in 2005-06 to £1.8 billion in 2017-18.
1 The percentage tax gap for tax types may differ between Chapter 1 and subsequent chapters. We use published receipts figures in Chapter 1 as liability figures are not available at the separated or disaggregated level required across all tax heads. Read the published figures used in Chapter 1 on GOV.UK: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hmrc-tax-and-nics-receipts-for-the-uk
Figure 1.1 shows the value of the tax gap alongside the percentage tax gap, which is calculated as a percentage of the amount of tax that should, in theory, be paid to HMRC, and what is actually paid.
Hover, zoom and isolate traces to explore the data further.
1 Figures for previous years have been revised.
There has been a reduction in the percentage tax gap over the past 13 years from 7.2% in 2005-06 to 5.6% in 2017-18. The fall in the overall percentage tax gap between 2013-14 and 2017-18 is mainly driven by the fall in income tax, National Insurance Contributions and Capital Gains Tax (IT, NICs and CGT), and excise duties. There has been a long-term reduction in tax gaps for both excise duties and Corporation Tax.
The percentage tax gap provides a better measure of compliance over time. It takes into account some of the effects of inflation, economic growth and changes to tax rates2, whereas the cash figure does not. For instance, in a growing economy where the tax base is increasing, even if the percentage tax gap remained level, the cash figure would grow.
2 A full list of rates is available on our website:
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/rates-and-allowances-hm-revenue-and-customs
Figure 1.2a shows how the tax gap is composed of different taxes and that two components, one covering income tax, National Insurance Contributions and Capital Gains Tax (IT, NICs and CGT) and the other VAT, account for 73% of the tax gap.
1 Figures for previous years have been revised.
2 Estimates are rounded to nearest 0.1%.
3 The percentage tax gap for tax types may differ between chapter one and subsequent chapters. We use published receipts figures in Chapter 1 as liability figures are not available at the disaggregated level required across all tax heads. Read the published receipts figures used in Chapter 1 on GOV.UK: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hmrc-tax-and-nics-receipts-for-the-uk
4 Percentage tax gap estimates for avoidance and the hidden economy are not shown as tax cannot be calculated.
Futher footnotes for the data displayed in this chart can be found in the footnote for Table 1.2 at the end of the chapter.
Figure 1.3 shows the total theoretical liability by type of tax, broken down by tax gap and tax paid. It shows that the tax gap for IT, NICs and CGT while the biggest at £12.9 billion equates to 3.9% of the total theoretical liabilities, and the VAT gap at £12.5 billion represents 9.1% of VAT theoretical tax liabilities.
Hover, zoom and isolate traces to explore the data further.
1 Figures for previous years have been revised.
2 The percentage tax gap for tax types may differ between chapter one and subsequent chapters. We use published receipts figures in Chapter 1 as liability figures are not available at the disaggregated level required across all tax heads. Read the published receipts figures used in Chapter 1 on GOV.UK: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hmrc-tax-and-nics-receipts-for-the-uk
3 ‘Other taxes’ includes indirect taxes (Aggregates Levy, Air Passenger Duty, Customs Duty, Climate Change Levy, Insurance Premium Tax, Landfill Tax) and direct taxes (Stamp duties, Inheritance Tax, Petroleum Revenue Tax)
Figure 1.4 shows the trend in the tax gaps over time. The largest proportionate fall between 2005-06 and 2017-18 is in the Corporation Tax gap, VAT and the excise duties tax gap, while the tax gap for the other taxes has remained relatively constant.
Hover, zoom and isolate traces to explore the data further.
1 Figures for previous years have been revised.
2 The percentage tax gap for tax types may differ between chapter one and subsequent chapters. We use published receipts figures in Chapter 1 as liability figures are not available at the disaggregated level required across all tax heads. Read the published receipts figures used in Chapter 1 on GOV.UK: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hmrc-tax-and-nics-receipts-for-the-uk
3 ‘Other taxes’ includes indirect taxes (Aggregates Levy, Air Passenger Duty, Customs Duty, Climate Change Levy, Insurance Premium Tax, Landfill Tax) and direct taxes (Stamp duties, Inheritance Tax, Petroleum Revenue Tax)
Table 1.1 (at the end of the chapter) shows the composition of the tax gap estimates for 2017-18.
Table 1.2 (at the end of the chapter) shows the percentage tax gap since 2005-06 by type of tax. A time series of the tax gap (cash figure) by type of tax from 2005-06 to 2016-17 is shown in Table 1.3 (at the end of the chapter).
HMRC’s strategy for improving the health of the tax system and addressing the causes of the tax gap is to segment its customers into groups. This allows HMRC to identify customer needs and risks more accurately and tailor its responses - whether that’s by providing appropriate support to ensure customers get their tax right, or by taking targeted action to tackle avoidance, evasion and criminal activity.
Tax gaps measurements are aligned with this customer segmentation, so the insights gained can be applied directly to improving the way HMRC manages these customer groups:
large businesses
mid-sized businesses
small businesses
individuals
criminals.
Details on how HMRC segments its customers can be found in Chapter K of the ‘Methodological annex.’
The ‘Methodological annex’ is available on our website
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/measuring-tax-gaps
Figure 1.5 shows the 2016-17 and 2017-18 tax gaps by customer group.1 In both 2016-17 and 2017-18 more than a third of the tax gap is attributed to small businesses. Individuals account for the smallest share of the tax gap in both 2016-17 and 2017-18.
The tax gap is composed of a range of behaviours - non-payment, use of avoidance schemes, legal interpretation of the tax effects of complex transactions, error, failure to take reasonable care, evasion, the hidden economy and criminal attacks on the tax system.
Figure 1.6 shows an estimate of taxpayer behaviours attributed to the tax gap for 2017-18. These estimates give a broad indication of behaviours and are calculated using assumptions and judgment.
‘Failure to take reasonable care’ and ‘Legal interpretation’ account for the largest proportions of the tax gap. We have updated some areas of the methodology used to estimate the tax gap by behaviour and these changes are described in Chapter L in the ‘Methodological annex’.
1 Figures may not appear to sum due to rounding.
Table 1.5 (at the end of the chapter) shows a time series of the tax gap by behaviour. As with the headline figures, the percentage figures provide a better measure of compliance over time because it takes into account changes to the tax base. It shows that customer behaviours over the past six years have been broadly consistent.
Avoidance is bending the rules of the tax system to gain a tax advantage that Parliament never intended. It often involves contrived, artificial transactions that serve little or no purpose other than to produce a tax advantage. It involves operating within the letter, but not the spirit, of the law.
The avoidance tax gap is estimated at £1.8 billion for 2017-18. This estimate reflects the laws that were in place at the time and does not include any subsequent changes to the tax law to prevent further use of avoidance.
Figure 1.7 shows how this is split by type of tax. More than half of the avoidance tax gap (55%) is attributed to Corporation Tax (CT), with 35% attributed to income tax, National Insurance Contributions and Capital Gains Tax (IT, NICs and CGT). Other direct taxes account for the smallest share of avoidance (about 3%). Table 1.6 (at the end of the chapter) shows the breakdown of the avoidance tax gap by type of tax from 2005-06 to 2017-18.
1 ‘Other direct taxes’ includes stamp duties, Inheritance Tax and Petroleum Revenue Tax.
The definition of avoidance used to produce the tax gap estimates is described in Table 1.7 (at the end of the chapter).
The methodologies used to produce the avoidance tax gap estimates differ according to the type of tax. They are summarised in the relevant chapters of this report and in the ‘Methodological annex’ published alongside this document.
The ‘Methodological annex’ is available on our website
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/measuring-tax-gaps
The tax gap is the difference between the amount of tax that should, in theory, be paid to HMRC, and what is actually paid.
The ‘theoretical tax liability’ represents the tax that would be paid if all individuals and companies complied with both the letter of the law and our interpretation of Parliament’s intention in setting law (referred to as the spirit of the law). The total theoretical tax liability is calculated as the tax gap plus the amount of tax actually received, from HMRC .
The tax gap estimates only cover the taxes administered by HMRC, so exclude taxes and duties administered elsewhere (council tax, business rates, and Vehicle Excise Duty) as well as charges, such as the congestion charge. These estimates also exclude error and fraud in tax credits.
Tax Gap Measurement - the Error and Fraud in Tax Credits publication is on the GOV.UK website:
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/announcements/child-and-working-tax-credits-error-and-fraud-statistics-2017-to-2018
Tax gaps are calculated net of compliance yield - that is, they reflect the gap remaining after HMRC’s compliance work. More information on compliance yield is available in HMRC’s Annual Report and Accounts. The ‘Methodological annex’ sets out how compliance yield is reflected in estimation for each component of the tax gap. Information in HMRC’s Annual Report and Accounts and ‘Measuring tax gaps’ publication are not directly comparable.
HMRC’s Annual Report and Accounts is available on our website
https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/hmrcs-annual-report-and-accounts
The ‘Methodological annex’ is available on our website
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/measuring-tax-gaps
VAT and excise tax gaps are estimated using a predominantly ‘top-down’ approach, by comparing the implied tax due from consumer expenditure data with tax . Most other components are estimated using a ‘bottom-up’ approach, building up from our own operational data and management information. The way we estimate each tax gap component and the data we use is set out in the relevant chapters, with additional information in the ‘Methodological annex’.
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Independent, external data on consumption is used to estimate the tax base.
This tax base is used to calculate a theoretical value of tax that should be paid.
The actual amount of tax paid is subtracted from this theoretical value to estimate the tax gap.
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These estimates are combined to estimate the tax gap.
Different methods and data sources are used to estimate how much tax is lost within each area.
HMRC uses internal data and operational knowledge to identify areas of potential tax loss.
The ‘Methodological annex’ is available on our website
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/measuring-tax-gaps
The total tax gap comprises established statistical methods and illustrative estimates.
Figure 1.8 shows that three quarters of the 2017-18 tax gap is estimated using established methods. Experimental methodologies are used to produce illustrative estimates where there is no direct measurement data. For these tax gap components, we use the best available data, simple models and assumptions to build an illustrative estimate of the tax gap.
Due to the methodologies used, all tax gap estimates are subject to error, are uncertain and can change from year to year due to improvements in method and data updates. Where possible, confidence intervals and ranges are set out for components of the tax gap in the relevant chapters.
The main sources of error are systematic errors in the assumptions used to calculate the estimates and sampling errors in the data used. Where possible, a robust estimate of the error margin is provided.
The methodologies used to calculate tax gaps are subject to regular review which could result in revisions to any of the published estimates. Estimates are made on a like-for-like basis each year to enable users to interpret trends, although some smaller tax gaps are not updated each year. Where data sources change over time, every effort has been made to ensure consistency in the series, but this is another potential source of uncertainty.
The ‘Methodological annex’ is available on our website
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/measuring-tax-gaps
Our tax gap estimates are official statistics produced with the highest levels of quality assurance and adhere to the framework for the Code of Practice for Statistics. This code assures objectivity and integrity - providing the framework to ensure that statistics are trustworthy, good quality, are valuable and provides producers of official statistics with the detailed practices they must commit to when producing and releasing official statistics.
The Office for Statistics Regulation (OSR), the regulatory arm of the UK Statistics Authority, provides independent regulation of all official statistics produced in the UK.
HMRC’s ‘preparation, production and publication of the ’Measuring tax gaps’ statistics was commended by the OSR after it completed a compliance check in May 2019, on the extent to which HMRC’s ‘Measuring tax gaps’ statistics meet the standards of the Code of Practice for Statistics.
Regulators stated that the HMRC tax gap team had proven to be “highly committed and engaged when working to enhance the trustworthiness, quality and value of these statistics” and also stated “HMRC is world-leading in measuring tax gaps and is setting the bar for others to follow”.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) assessed the way in which the UK calculates its tax gap. The IMF report, published in August 2013, concluded that: “HMRC’s tax gap analysis program is comprehensive in tax coverage, effectively addresses its multiple dimensions, and work is ongoing to enhance its support to HMRC management. Tax gaps are estimated for most parts of the taxes administered by HMRC. In this regard, HMRC produces one of the most comprehensive studies of tax gap estimates internationally. In general, the models and methodologies used by HMRC to estimate the tax gap across taxes are sound and consistent with the general approaches used by other countries.”
HMRC continues to engage with academics, international institutions and other fiscal authorities, as well as the UK’s National Audit Office, the Office for Statistics Regulation and the Office for National Statistics, to share methodologies and best practices to estimate the tax gap as accurately as possible.
HMRC is an active member of international bodies which aim to improve and share best practice in estimating tax gaps, including:
the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Advanced Tax Gap Analysis Community of Practice, established in March 2019, for OECD member countries that have significant experience in tax gap estimation
the OECD working group on measurement of the shadow economy
a member of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) group to develop best practice guidance for a personal income tax gap methodology.
HMRC hosted its first international tax gap conference on ‘Overcoming obstacles to tax gap measurement’, in September 2018.
The event was attended by more than 50 guests from tax authorities and finance ministries worldwide.
Presentations and panel discussions featured speakers from HMRC, along with other tax organisations such as the Canada Revenue Agency, Australian Taxation Office and the IMF. Speakers explained their measurement approach and strategies to tackle tax gaps, focusing on notoriously difficult areas including the hidden economy and offshore hidden wealth.
UK Statistics Authority - Compliance Check of Measuring Tax Gap Statistics Assessment of HMRC’s Tax Gap Analysis: https://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/correspondence/compliance-check-of-measuring-tax-gaps-statistics
Code of Practice for Statistics:
https://www.statisticsauthority.gov.uk/wp-content/uploads/2018/02/Code-of-Practice-for-Statistics.pdf
United Kingdom: Technical Assistance Report - Assessment of HMRC’s Tax Gap Analysis:
https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/scr/2013/cr13314.pdf
A full set of the ‘Measuring tax gaps’ tables and tax gap time series is published on our website. These have been revised and updated for methodological revisions detailed in this publication up to and including 2017-18.
Historical data sets are available via ’Measuring tax gap’s tables:
https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/measuring-tax-gaps-tables
Many tax gap component estimates have been revised since ‘Measuring tax gaps 2018 edition’. This is due to improvements in the way they are calculated, the availability of more up-to-date data and projections based on more recent years’ information. In July 2015 the National Audit Office has endorsed HMRC’s good practice in adjusting previous figures where necessary and being transparent about the revisions.
Table 1.8 (at the end of the chapter) summarises the amount of revisions for each component of the tax gap.
Table 1.9 (at the end of the chapter) summarises the reasons. Further information is available within the relevant chapters.
Figure 1.9 shows the revisions made to the overall tax gap estimates for editions published since ‘Measuring tax gaps 2010’. This illustrates the uncertainty around the estimation of tax gaps, and highlights why they are best used as a long-term indicator of compliance.
Double click for enhanced view, hover, zoom and isolate traces to explore the data further.
1 MTG stands for ‘Measuring tax gaps’.
1 Tax gap as a proportion of theoretical liability which is defined as the tax gap plus the amount of tax actually received. Total percentage tax gap estimates are rounded to the nearest 0.1% with individual estimates rounded to the nearest 1%.
2 The percentage tax gap for tax types may differ between chapter one and subsequent chapters. We use published receipts figures in Chapter 1 as liability figures are not available at the disaggregated level required across all tax heads. Read the published receipts figures used in Chapter 1 on GOV.UK: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hmrc-tax-and-nics-receipts-for-the-uk
3 The overall tax gap is rounded to the nearest £1 billion. Other estimates are rounded to the nearest £100 million.
4 The total alcohol figure excludes wine as wine is now included in ‘Other excise duties’ in this edition. We explain this further in Chapter 3.
5 All excise tax gap point estimates and percentage tax gaps include duty only.
6 ‘Other excise duties’ includes betting and gaming duties, cider and perry duties, spirit-based ready-to-drink duties and wine duties.
7 Ghosts are individuals whose entire income is unknown to HMRC.
8 Moonlighters are individuals who are known to us in relation to part of their income, but have other sources of income that HMRC does not know about.
9 ‘Other taxes’ includes indirect taxes (Aggregates Levy, Air Passenger Duty, Climate Change Levy, Customs Duty, Insurance Premium Tax, Landfill Tax) and direct taxes (stamp duties, Inheritance Tax and Petroleum Revenue Tax).
10 We will be looking to incorporate emerging data sources as a result of offshore disclosure facilities and related work.
1 Figures for previous years have been revised.
2 Estimates are rounded to nearest 0.1%.
3 The percentage tax gap for tax types may differ between chapter one and subsequent chapters. We use published receipts figures in Chapter 1 as liability figures are not available at the disaggregated level required across all tax heads. Read the published receipts figures used in Chapter 1 on GOV.UK: https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/hmrc-tax-and-nics-receipts-for-the-uk
4 The total alcohol figure excludes wine as wine is now included in ‘Other excise duties’ in this edition. We explain this further in Chapter 3.
5 ‘Other excise duties’ includes betting and gaming duties, cider and perry duties, spirit-based ready-to-drink duties and wine duties.
6 Percentage tax gap estimates for avoidance and the hidden economy are not shown as tax cannot be calculated.
7 ‘Other taxes’ includes indirect taxes (Aggregates Levy, Air Passenger Duty, Climate Change Levy, Customs Duty, Insurance Premium Tax, Landfill Tax) and direct taxes (stamp duties, Inheritance Tax and Petroleum Revenue Tax).
8 Petroleum Revenue tax was permanently zero rated from 1 January 2016, and although tax is no longer due, companies are able to claim back refunds for earlier years, which has caused negative tax since 2015-16. Combining Inheritance tax with the negative from Petroleum Revenue tax has led to an artificially higher ‘other direct taxes’ percentage gap compared to that expected from earlier years, which is not due to less compliance.
1 Figures for previous years have been revised.
2 Estimates are rounded to the nearest £100 million. Figures may not appear to sum due to rounding.
3 The total alcohol figure excludes wine as wine is now included in ‘Other excise duties’ in this edition. We explain this further in Chapter 3.
4 ‘Other excise duties’ includes betting and gaming duties, cider and perry duties, spirit-based ready-to-drink duties and wine duties.
5 ‘Other taxes’ includes indirect taxes (Aggregates Levy, Air Passenger Duty, Climate Change Levy, Customs Duty, Insurance Premium Tax, Landfill Tax) and direct taxes (stamp duties, Inheritance Tax, Petroleum Revenue Tax).
1 Figures for previous years have been revised.
2 The overall tax gap is rounded to the nearest £1 billion. Other estimates are rounded to the nearest £100 million. Figures may not appear to sum due to rounding.
1 Figures for previous years have been revised.
2 The overall tax gap is rounded to the nearest £1 billion. Other estimates are rounded to the nearest £100 million. Figures may not appear to sum due to rounding.
1 Figures for previous years have been revised.
2 ‘Other taxes’ includes indirect taxes (Aggregates Levy, Air Passenger Duty, Climate Change Levy, Customs Duty, Insurance Premium Tax, Landfill Tax) and direct taxes (stamp duties, Inheritance Tax, Petroleum Revenue Tax).
More information and frequently asked questions on the OECD’s Inclusive Framework on BEPS can be found at:
https://www.oecd.org/ctp/beps-frequentlyaskedquestions.htm
1 neg denotes revisions less than £50 million.
2 ‘-’ denotes no change.
3 Revisions may not exactly sum due to rounding.
4 The total alcohol figure excludes wine as wine is now included in ‘Other excise duties’ in this edition. We explain this further in Chapter 3.
5 ‘Other excise duties’ includes betting and gaming duties, cider and perry duties, spirit-based ready-to-drink beverage duties and wine duties.
6 ‘Other taxes’ includes indirect taxes (Aggregates Levy, Air Passenger Duty, Climate Change Levy, Customs Duty, Insurance Premium Tax, Landfill Tax) and direct taxes (stamp duties, Inheritance Tax and Petroleum Revenue Tax).